We are currently in the longest economic recovery in U.S. history. That has caused some to ask experts to project when the next economic slowdown (recession) could occur. Two years ago, 67% of the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) for the Economic Forecasting Survey predicted we would have a recession no later than the end of this year (2020). The same study done just three months ago showed more than one-third of the economists still saw an economic slowdown right around the corner.
The news caused concern among consumers. This is evidenced by a recent survey done by realtor.com that shows 53% of home purchasers (first-time and repeat buyers) currently in the market believe a recession will occur by the end of this year.
Wait! It seems the experts are changing their minds….
Now, in an article earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed only 14.3% of those economists now believe we’re in danger of a recession occurring this year (see graph below):
The WSJ article strongly stated,
“The U.S. expansion, now in its 11th year, will continue through the 2020 presidential election with a healthy labor market backing it up, economists say.”
This optimism regarding the economy was repeated by others as well.
CNBC, quoting Goldman Sachs economists:
“Just months after almost everyone on Wall Street worried that a recession was just around the corner, Goldman Sachs said a downturn is unlikely over the next several years. In fact, the firm’s economists stopped just short of saying that the U.S. economy is recession-proof.”
“When Barron’s gathers some of Wall Street’s best minds—as we do every January for our annual Roundtable—we expect some consensus, some disagreement…But the 10 veteran investors and economists who convened in New York on Jan. 6 at the Barron’s offices agree that there’s almost no chance of a recession this year.”
“The U.S. economy is heading into 2020 at a pace of steady, sustained growth after a series of interest rate cuts and the apparent resolution of two trade-related threats mostly eliminated the risk of a recession.”
Robert A. Dye, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank:
“I expect that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in 2020.”
Bottom Line
There probably won’t be a recession this year. That’s good news for you, whether you’re looking to buy or sell a home.
Search Denver Area Homes:
Start the process today by searching the MLS for your next home. Mortgage interest rates are still historically low and the metro Denver market has more housing inventory that it did a few years ago. Explore the homes available today to get a feel for price points, types of homes, and locations so you have a better feel when it comes time to take a more serious look. My Denver real estate blog is full of useful information for homebuyers considering buying a home. Please call me, or send me an email / text, to discuss your thoughts about your next home.
Please contact me before you look at new construction, remember the builder’s real estate agent represents the builder’s interest, not your’s. There is no cost for you to have a buyer’s agent represent you in a transaction with a sophisticated seller. In fact, I may be able to help you save money and negotiate for extras which the builder may not let you know about.
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Time To Sell Your Home?
When it is time to sell your home in the Denver area, I encourage you to work with a real estate agent who has the experience and knowledge to provide an accurate market comparison so you can determine the right asking price. The market is more balanced now and your asking price is an important component of your selling strategy. And if you are selling your home to then buy a new home, you’re in luck, we are now in a “goldilocks” market ideal for that type of transaction. Contact me today to learn how your home stacks up against the competition and how we can position your property to sell quickly and for a fair price.
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