The headlines in real estate today all revolve around one major point: there is a shortage of homes available for sale. Price appreciation is accelerating again because there is a shortage of homes available for sale. First-time buyers are taking longer to purchase a home because there is a shortage of homes available for sale in the lower price points. Boomers are staying in their current homes longer because there is a shortage of homes available for sale to which they would move. In certain markets, affordability is becoming more challenging because there is a shortage of homes available for sale.
What’s the major reason for this lack of housing inventory?
The issue was examined in a recent article by the National Home Builders Association (NAHB). In the article, Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for NAHB, explained:
“Home building in the 2010s was a story of the Long Recovery. After the Great Recession, the number of home builders declined significantly, and housing production was unable to meet buyer demand…Years of population and household formation growth, combined with relatively reduced levels of home building, have left the market with a critical supply shortage.”
Here are the single-family home construction starts by decade for the last six decades:
Obviously, there’s a current shortage of homes for sale because not enough houses were built over the last ten years. To add to the challenge, the U.S. population expanded by more than 20 million people during the 2010s.
Below is a graph showing the number of starts per every million in population. The last decade shows that starts per population were less than half the average of the previous five decades.
There’s good news coming!
The NAHB article explains that there is light at the end of the tunnel.
How confident home builders are in the housing market is a great indicator of how much building is about to get started. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average,” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as “good” than “poor.”
Here are the HMI readings going back to 2008:
The 2019 confidence reading of 76 was the highest since 1999. The January 2020 index came in one point lower at 75. These readings indicate we should see an increase in new residential construction in 2020. Just last week, NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde stated:
“Low interest rates and a healthy labor market combined with a need for additional inventory are setting the stage for further home building gains in 2020.”
The increase in housing starts has already begun. According to the January report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, single‐family housing starts were up 11.2% and attained the highest level in thirteen years.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re a first-time home buyer or a seller thinking of moving up or down, 2020 could be your year with more new construction homes coming to market.
Search Denver Area Homes:
Start the process today by searching the MLS for your next home. Mortgage interest rates are still historically low and the metro Denver market has more housing inventory that it did a few years ago. Explore the homes available today to get a feel for price points, types of homes, and locations so you have a better feel when it comes time to take a more serious look. My Denver real estate blog is full of useful information for homebuyers considering buying a home. Please call me, or send me an email / text, to discuss your thoughts about your next home.
Please contact me before you look at new construction, remember the builder’s real estate agent represents the builder’s interest, not your’s. There is no cost for you to have a buyer’s agent represent you in a transaction with a sophisticated seller. In fact, I may be able to help you save money and negotiate for extras which the builder may not let you know about.
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Time To Sell Your Home?
When it is time to sell your home in the Denver area, I encourage you to work with a real estate agent who has the experience and knowledge to provide an accurate market comparison so you can determine the right asking price. The market is more balanced now and your asking price is an important component of your selling strategy. And if you are selling your home to then buy a new home, you’re in luck, we are now in a “goldilocks” market ideal for that type of transaction. Contact me today to learn how your home stacks up against the competition and how we can position your property to sell quickly and for a fair price.
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