If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you may be wondering how the housing market will be impacted by a recession. Last week, the National Association for Business Economics released their February 2019 Economic Policy Survey. The survey revealed that a majority of the panel believe an economic slowdown is in the near future:
“While only 10% of panelists expect a recession in 2019, 42% say a recession will happen in 2020, and 25% expect one in 2021.”
Their findings coincide with three previous surveys calling for a slowdown sometime in the next two years:
- The Pulsenomics Survey of Market Analysts
- The Wall Street Journal Survey of Economists
- The Duke University Survey of American CFOs
That raises the question: Will the real estate market be impacted like it was during the last recession?
A recession does not equal a housing crisis. According to the dictionary definition, a recession is:
“A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.”
During the last recession, prices fell dramatically because the housing collapse caused the recession. However, if we look at the previous four recessions, we can see that home values weren’t negatively impacted:
- January 1980 to July 1980: Home values rose 4.5%
- July 1981 to November 1982: Home values rose 1.9%
- July 1990 to March 1991: Home values fell less than 1%
- March 2001 to November 2001: Home values rose 4.8%
Most experts agree with Ralph McLaughlin, CoreLogic’s Deputy Chief Economist, who recently explained:
“There’s no reason to panic right now, even if we may be headed for a recession. We’re seeing a cooling of the housing market, but nothing that indicates a crash.”
The housing market is just “normalizing”. Inventory is starting to increase and home prices are finally stabilizing. This is a good thing for both buyers and sellers as we move forward.
Bottom Line
If there is an economic slowdown in our near future, there is no need for fear to set in. As renowned financial analyst, Morgan Housel, recently tweeted:
“An interesting thing is the widespread assumption that the next recession will be as bad as 2008. Natural to think that way, but, statistically, highly unlikely. Could be over before you realized it began.”
Start Your Home Search:
Are you ready to start searching for your Denver area home? It’s a great time, we have more inventory than we did the past few years. I encourage you to explore homes currently on the market to get a feel for the types of homes, locations, and price points. My Denver real estate blog has loads of useful information for home buyers trying to figure out what they want to do. And of course, please call me, or send me an email / text, to discuss your next home and the buying process.
Also, if you are considering new construction, remember the builder’s real estate agent represents their best interest, not yours. There is no cost for you to have an agent represent you. In fact, I may be able to help you save money and negotiate for extras which the builder may not let you know about.
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Considering Selling Your Home?
If you are looking to sell your home in the Denver area, I encourage you to work with a real estate agent who has the experience and knowledge to provide an accurate market comparison so you can determine the right asking price. The market is more balanced now and your asking price is an important component of your selling strategy. Contact me today to learn how your home stacks up against the competition and how we can position your property to sell quickly and for a fair price.
